Strategic foresight methodology to identifying technology trends and business opportunities
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This research aims to synthesize a model, based on previously developed methods by UNIDO, Deutsche Bank, Siemens Technology Accelerator, among others, by using control systems logic and serving as reference for systematic planning and strategic foresight in identifying technology trends and business opportunities. This model will serve as a decision support system with an environmental thorough analysis, allowing early detection of such trends. In the first phase, methodologies such as backcasting, and strategic vision set the goal of what'll be prospected. In the second phase, resources and capabilities are defined using tools such as Environmental Scanning & Monitoring, Core Strategic Vision, and SWOT among others. The third phase defines the direction based on prior information. The first control loop is made up, serving as a fast-track feedback making it adaptable to the changing environment. A fourth phase serves to define action plans and measures to achieve the objectives; this stage feeds back to keep the system updated on the progress of measures and actions taken. This model is expected to respond to the following strategic foresight basic questions: what is being sought, where the technologies are, what direction should be taken according to the current environment and how to get there. © 2010 IEEE.