The aspiration gap: Who believes in the future of the megacity? A comparative study of urban hope in Southeast Asia

abstract

In rapidly urbanizing Southeast Asian cities, questions of belonging, class identity, and future aspiration have become central to understanding urban life. This paper examines urban hope among the emerging urban middle class by analyzing the aspirations of residents in Jakarta, Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, and Phnom Penh for their children to build a future in the same city. We introduce the ¿aspiration gap¿ as a forward-looking measure linking current conditions to expected future stability and trust. Drawing on survey data from 3492 urban, educated, and middle-income respondents and employing Bayesian logistic regression with city-specific and pooled estimates, the study finds that the foundations of urban hope are context-dependent but regionally aligned. While perceptions of fairness, safety, and service satisfaction generally move in the same direction, their intensity varies across cities, showing that urban aspiration is locally grounded yet structurally comparable. Comparing four analytically comparable cities representing different moments in Southeast Asia¿s urbanization spectrum, the paper proposes a ¿hierarchy of urban needs¿. This model suggests that basic safety and family-friendliness form universal prerequisites, while higher-order aspirations¿such as dignity, fairness, and belonging¿depend on local context. Linking livability to urban resilience, this perspective highlights future-oriented aspiration as a key element of civic trust. Ultimately, fostering enduring commitment requires context-specific strategies that strengthen social cohesion and trust. Urban governance must cultivate not only infrastructure and services but also the collective belief that the city is, and will remain, a place worth investing in for future generations. © © 2025. Published by Elsevier Ltd.