abstract
- In Jakarta, the COVID-19 pandemic produced a paradox: low-density informal settlements experienced disproportionately high infection rates. While we hypothesized that the dense social networks (intensive socialization) would drive transmission, our quantitative models revealed that pre-pandemic socialization was, in fact, a significant protective factor. The primary drivers of transmission were high resident mobility and a lack of formal health infrastructure. These results indicate vulnerability stems not from internal social cohesion, but from the community's fragmented relationship with the formal city, which forces high-risk mobility and is marked by inadequate state services. We conclude that policy should mitigate these structural risks, and we propose models of granular-level governance to better integrate community strengths with formal support. © © 2026. Published by Elsevier Ltd.