Harnessing biomass for bioethanol production in Mexico presents a promising bioenergy conversion pathway toward sustainable energy systems. It contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and supports broader sustainable development objectives. However, transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy introduces complex supply chain risks that require comprehensive evaluation to ensure long-term system sustainability, economic viability, and operational resilience. This study employs a mixed-methods approach to explore these risks. The qualitative phase began by identifying key risks through existing research. Subsequently, seven domain experts were engaged to refine and contextualize these risks for the Mexican bioethanol sector, including five industry-experienced academics who participated in the quantitative phase and two senior academic specialists who contributed to the qualitative phase. The quantitative phase assessed the importance of each risk factor and ranked companies according to their capacity to manage these risks effectively. In Mexico, the most critical risk identified is the significant initial investment required, reflecting the high costs associated with infrastructure and advanced technologies for converting biomass into bioethanol. The second substantial risk is the lack of clear policies and regulations, highlighting the need for institutional support in this emerging sector. Optimism bias was also identified as a key behavioral challenge, as it can lead to unrealistic expectations about technological capabilities and the availability of biomass resources. Finally, the importance¿performance matrix was applied to develop targeted strategies for strengthening risk management across the sector.
