abstract
- Mexico faces a dilemma shared by many economies: how to reconcile economic growth with a substantial reduction in CO¿ emissions. This study assesses sectoral pathways for national decarbonization by examining the Mexican economy as a whole, disaggregated into productive sectors, for benchmark years 2013 and 2018. We combine a hybrid economy¿energy input¿output framework with DEA¿Malmquist analysis to quantify multiplier effects across key economic and environmental dimensions and assess sectoral productivity and environmental efficiency. Results reveal strong sectoral heterogeneity and a clear development¿mitigation trade-off. The Malmquist Index indicates an overall improvement in sectoral performance (MI = 1.121), driven mainly by efficiency catch-up rather than technological change, highlighting the importance of both near-term efficiency policies and longer-term technological upgrades. These findings provide an evidence base for planning and designing sector-specific decarbonization actions that balance mitigation objectives with the economic and production priorities of the country.