abstract
- A comprehensive assessment of the capacity credit of potential wind power developments in Mexico has been conducted for the first time. The analysis is based on an 80m wind speed map generated from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data base and a set of restrictions, including proximity to transmission lines and major roads. Potential wind farm sites complying with all restrictions were populated with wind farms according to different scenarios; consecutive deployment of wind power from 1% to 15% system penetration was considered in all cases. In a set of one-region scenarios the evolution of the capacity credit was studied for different levels of intra-regional diversification. Near-generic decay according to a power law was observed at high penetration levels, whereas a notorious benefit was obtained from diversification at low and intermediate wind power penetration. In order to assess the potential benefits of inter-regional diversification, an optimization procedure was conducted. A significant improvement of the capacity credit decay curve was obtained for all levels of penetration. Optimal sets are characterized by a balanced utilization among regions with a relative insensitivity with respect to the exact composition of the wind farm set. The results are believed to be useful for the expansion planning of the Mexican electric grid. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.