abstract
- Drawing on classic literature on democracy transitions and subnational authoritarian regimes, this article explores some causes of alternations at the subnational level, an understudied topic in the literature. The study uses data on electoral alternations at the state level in Mexico over 30 years. A Bayesian logistic regression model is employed to identify conditions that are most likely to lead to gubernatorial alternations. Elite divisions and coalition building are the main drivers of these changes, suggesting that subnational political context is an important factor in state-level alternations, even after controlling for various economic and social indicators. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.