Scenarios of sustainable energy transition towards the decarbonisation of the road transport sector: A case study for Mexico

abstract

Worldwide, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in the road transport sector is a climate change mitigation priority. This study provides an integrated assessment methodology applied to a case study of Mexico to propose sustainable energy transition alternatives for the long-term decarbonisation of the national sector. Energy modelling and scenario development methods to obtain holistic alternatives for the transition of this sector were conducted. Six scenarios were proposed to describe the energy consumption and the main CO2 trajectories considering environmental, socio-economic, technological, and governance aspects. The scenarios follow different pathways, from a Business-as-usual to a Net Zero, which were statistically analysed and validated. From 2018 to 2050, when a population of 144 million inhabitants is expected in the country, the first scenario leads to a 73.7 % increase in fossil energy consumption and 71.6 % in carbon emissions, whereas the Net Zero scenario suggests a possible reduction of 42.3 % and 89.9 %, respectively. In this scenario, the largest reductions in carbon emissions may be attained by fuel diversification, with electricity contributing 73.9 %, biofuels 9.2 %, hydrogen 8.2 %, less than 1 % of synthetic fuels and fossil fuels 8.7 %. Achieving decarbonisation targets would depend on: (i) a reduction in fossil fuels and energy demand; (ii) a gradual introduction of clean energy sources for low-carbon power generation; (iii) a societal behavioural change; (iv) a large investment in infrastructure, and (v) the updating of public policies to support a sustainable energy transition. © 2025