abstract
- The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between hydrocarbon production and extraction activities in northeastern Mexico, specifically in the Burgos Basin and the states of Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, and Coahuila, and crime rates in these municipalities. Using 2020 municipal data, this descriptive study employs a quantitative and cross-sectional methodology with correlational and spatial analyses. Municipalities with both active and inactive wells were included, representing 73 out of 132 municipalities in the northeastern states. Despite limitations such as data volume and the exploratory nature of the research, a correlation was observed between hydrocarbon activities and homicide rates over a four-year period. Although a direct relationship with overall crime could not be established, a moderate positive spatial correlation was found. An analysis of Local Indicators of Spatial Association revealed a cluster of seven municipalities with a strong link between production and criminal activity. This suggests that intense economic activities may disrupt social cohesion and increase violence, supporting social disorganization theories such as those of Shaw and McKay. The study also highlights the importance of considering the ¿dark figure¿ of unreported crimes when assessing the relationship between hydrocarbon production and crime. Strengthening institutional capacities is recommended to mitigate the social consequences of energy development.