abstract
- This paper presents an approach to assess the probability of exceeding different thresholds considering the cumulative damage due to corrosion and seismic loads over time. The study considers two scenarios: a) the structure is exposed only to seismic loads and b) both the effect of corrosion and seismic loads is presented. Corrosion is characterized by the loss of section of the steel reinforcement in concrete due to chloride ions. Uncertainties derived from different corrosion phases such as initiation time, cracking, and evolution are considered. In addition, the variability of manufacturing process of materials, seismic occurrence and construction processes are taken into account. Numerical probability of exceeding different thresholds or fragility curves are calculated considering some instants of time after the system is constructed. The approach is illustrated on a continuous reinforced concrete (RC) bridge designed to comply with a drift threshold of 0.002 and situated in Acapulco Bay, Mexico. It is observed that the effect of corrosion plus seismic loads after 150 years increases the probability of exceeding the design drift threshold up to 39.34% respect to the case in which the damage is only caused by earthquakes.