abstract
- In this document, the economic effect of Covid-19 on the economic activity of Mexico in 2020 is quantified, separating the impact of the trend that has been observed in recent years. The procedure used is an ARIMA model with an intervention that incorporates the NIG probability distribution, where it is found that the explained variance of the seasonally adjusted time series of the IGAE due to Covid-19 is 44.20% and due to the administration on duty 18.89%. These two estimates quantify that Covid-19 came to aggravate the recessionary economic situation that existed since 2019. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021.