How much is too much or too little? Decadal climatic variation in the 21st century Book in Scopus uri icon

abstract

  • The 21st century has been marked by unprecedented climatic variability, leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts. This study delves into the complexities of managing water resources in the face of such extremes, exploring the critical question: ¿How much is too much?¿ The research highlights the alarming trend of decreasing recurrence intervals for both floods and droughts, exacerbated by climate change. This has profound implications for societies and ecosystems worldwide, as regions previously characterized by moderate precipitation levels are now experiencing extreme weather events with severe impacts. Central to this investigation is the role of climatic indices, particularly the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), in monitoring, predicting, and managing these extremes. The study also examines the influence of long-term climatic patterns, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), on global hydrological cycles and their implications for the water resource management. By integrating probabilistic models with worst-case scenario planning, this research advocates for a more comprehensive approach to mitigating the risks associated with hydrological extremes. The findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated global efforts in monitoring, preparedness, and the implementation of proactive measures to build resilience against increasingly erratic climatic conditions. Ultimately, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the thresholds that determine catastrophic outcomes in water quantity management, offering critical insights into future climate adaptation strategies. © 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

publication date

  • January 1, 2024