Mortality Estimation with Controlled Smoothing by Segments Applied to Potentially Insured Missing Persons in Mexico

We aim to estimate mortality in the insured Mexican market due to missing individuals who may have life insurance. To do that, we assess the potential impact of a future reform that could accelerate the process of obtaining Death Certificates of Presumption (CPDs) for life insurance beneficiaries. The worst scenarios of mortality have been generated, assuming that a certain percentage of missing individuals who have died were insured, based on data from 2016 to 2018. Our approach involves the implementation of controlled smoothing by segments, forecasting tools, and demographic calculations. The results suggest changes in mortality patterns, particularly at younger ages for both genders in collective insurance. Moreover, the results indicate that the observed mortality significantly exceeds the expected mortality for certain life stages, even without considering the potential impact of missing individuals who had life insurance. Consequently, the Mexican insurance sector should revise expected mortality and foresee additional consequences. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.

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